What will be the most significant issues for investors in 2026? Here is our rundown of seven topics that are likely to matter most this year.
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Economic factors
Global interest rates and inflation levels will remain influential. In the UK, economists are expecting interest rate cuts over the coming months, according to Morningstar. Elsewhere, JP Morgan Global Research suggests there’s a 35% chance of a US and global recession in 2026, while sticky inflation will be a prevailing theme*.
Meera Chandan, co-head of its Global FX Strategy team, remains bearish on the dollar and moderately bullish on the euro, a view supported by eurozone growth and German fiscal expansion. “However, any EUR/USD gains should be moderate versus 2025 unless U.S. data materially weakens,” she said.
Geopolitical problems
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by the United States suggests 2026 is unlikely to be quiet for President Donald Trump. Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs announcement triggered a near-20% fall in US equities, pointed out John Wyn-Evans, head of market analysis at Rathbones**.
Another wobble followed in October when he raised the prospect of tariffs on China, which was only resolved when Chinese President Xi Jinping warned of retaliatory tightening. “Given President Trump’s fondness for using trade threats as a policy weapon, we can only expect to see more of the same in 2026, perhaps triggering further market volatility,” he said.
AI and technology
There’s no escaping the rise of artificial intelligence. The AI boom was a primary driver of markets in 2025, with tech giants such as Nvidia seeing their valuations soar. How this technology will transform our lives will continue to dominate discussions over the coming year and provide plenty of opportunities for investors.
The managers of the Landseer Global Artificial Intelligence fund remain optimistic despite short-term volatility, valuation resets and renewed scrutiny around capital intensity. In a latest update, they wrote: “We expect continued strength across semiconductors, cloud-infrastructure providers and AI-enabled software platforms, supported by ongoing earnings delivery and durable multi-year demand for advanced computers.”
Company profits
There’s a good degree of optimism across the world as January gets underway. For example, Europe has some positive catalysts, according to the managers of the WS Lightman European fund. “Lower electricity prices, German fiscal expansion, a possible end to the war in Ukraine and some de-regulatory efforts for certain sectors could provide support,” they wrote in an update.
Elsewhere, Richard Hallett, manager of the IFSL Marlborough Multi-Cap Growth fund, is also optimistic about the prospects for UK-listed companies. “While patience is still required, we believe the environment is becoming increasingly favourable for a re-rating of quality growth stocks,” he wrote.
Elsewhere, good news is predicted for income investors. Janus Henderson forecast dividend growth of 5% in 2025 and that momentum could continue into 2026.***.
Diversification
The amount of uncertainty around the globe as we enter the new year suggests having a broad spread of exposures will be crucial. It’s a point acknowledged by Sean Peche, the experienced manager of the Ranmore Global Equity fund, who favours companies with strong balance sheets. He doesn’t allow large individual positions in his portfolio because he believes you can never be certain of the future in an ever-changing world. “We are also diversified across regions, perhaps even more important in these times of rapidly changing political relationships and global trading patterns,” he explained in an update.
Infrastructure
Trillions of dollars needs to be spent on global infrastructure – and that fact alone ensures it’ll be one of the most important issues for 2026. Governments will come under pressure to provide attractive investment frameworks to entice capital, according to Peter Meany, lead manager of First Sentier Global Listed Infrastructure. “This appears likely to provide global listed infrastructure companies with additional long-term growth opportunities,” he said. There’s a tailwind for regulated utilities, energy infrastructure and renewables, according to the managers of the FTF ClearBridge Global Infrastructure Income fund.
Commodities
Rising oil prices increase costs for businesses such as airlines and manufacturers. Conversely, their profits go up when they decline. Global commodity markets may benefit from positive trends, according to a report published by Morgan Stanley****.
It pointed out that lower energy input costs act like a tax cut for the global economy, boosting consumption and freeing up resources for growth. “Oil prices declined through 2025 due to a growing supply glut, and we think prices could remain moderate in 2026,” it added. “That would keep fuel costs manageable for industry.”
